…apophenia, which is the human tendency to see patterns and connections through random data points, usually also coinciding with too few data points.

— Peter Hollins, Mental Models

…trying to signal wisdom by refusing to make guesses—refusing to sum up evidence—refusing to pass judgment—refusing to take sides—staying above the fray and looking down with a lofty and condescending gaze—which is to say, signaling wisdom by saying and doing nothing—well, that I find particularly pretentious.

— Eliezer Yudkowsky, Map and Territory

“current trends” always look linear, while history’s full arc almost never does.

— Ben Orlin, Change Is the Only Constant

The consequences of negative news are themselves negative. Far from being better informed, heavy newswatchers can become miscalibrated.

— Steven Pinker, Enlightenment Now

Relentlessness wins because, in the aggregate, unseen details become visible.

— Paul Graham, Hackers & Painters